Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
