Just two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.